LAMASUS successfully held the joint Pre-Congress Workshop with BrightSpace project at XVII EAAE Congress 2023
The workshop began with a warm welcome from LAMASUS and BrightSpace, highlighting the importance of setting baseline scenarios in land-use and management modeling. Tassos Haniotis emphasized the need for plausible baseline scenarios that reflect the most recent developments, as they play a crucial role in influencing policy debates.
Key considerations include geopolitical threats and climate impacts. Hubertus Gay from OECD and Ignacio Perez Dominguez from JRC discussed the fresh OECD baseline for 2023-32, emphasizing the importance of a plausible story behind baseline projections rather than pure forecasts. They also indicated that for selected variables a stochastic baseline is available reflecting a range of plausible outcomes. Tamás Krisztin presented lessons learned from AgCLIM50 V and highlighted the ongoing efforts in baseline development by BrightSpace and LAMASUS. Peter Witzke provided an overview of the current (model specific) baselines for CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAGNET, and IMAGE models. The mode specific contribution to baseline development was also discussed. Individual model baseline presentations by Ipsita Kumar (GLOBIOM), Eurocare (CAPRI), Hans van Meijl (MAGNET), IMAGE, and Lennart Kokemohr (FARM DYN) emphasized the importance of aligning drivers while maintaining model diversity to avoid overfitting. Tamás Krisztin discussed tools such as common reporting templates, Scenario Explorer, and statistical approaches, which are essential for aligning baseline models. These tools ensure data consistency and help avoid errors.
Full summary of the workshop is available here