LAMASUS at the 100th conference of The Agricultural Economics Society

On 23 March 2026, Tamás Krisztin (IIASA, LAMASUS scientific coordinator) presented at the 100th Annual Conference of the Agricultural Economics Society in Oxford.

Developed jointly within the BrightSpace, ACT4CAP27 and LAMASUS projects, the paper presented explores how different modelling approaches influence projections of the future of EU agriculture:

The study compared harmonised baseline projections from six leading agricultural models to assess uncertainty in forecasts for production, land use, emissions, trade and prices. While the models consistently project productivity-driven growth, modest land contraction and slight declines in agricultural emissions, they showed greater variation in areas such as trade, commodity composition and Member State-level impacts.

In his presentation, Tamás also introduced a “challenging baseline” that reflects higher energy and fertiliser prices, increasing trade fragmentation and stronger climate impacts. The findings highlighted the importance of using multiple modelling approaches to support robust, evidence-based agricultural policy making under uncertain future conditions.